The dollar-rupee forward premia, which indicates the India-US interest rate differential, has dropped significantly due to a pause in local tightening rates and expectations of further increases by the US Federal Reserve. While this drop may lower hedging costs for importers, it reduces incentives for exporters to sell dollars as their returns decline. This decline could lead to a compression in the rate differential between the two countries and reduce the relative appeal of domestic assets for overseas investors. This could also lead to potential unwinding of dollar short positions by carry traders.
